学术前沿讲座—What determines China’s housing price dynamics? New evidencefrom a DSGE-VAR
发布时间: 2018-12-21

东南大学财神棋牌手机官网专题讨论(Seminar

报告题目

What determines China’s housing price dynamics? New evidencefrom a DSGE-VAR

报告人(单位)

欧智荣副教授 (英国卡迪夫大学)

点评人(单位)

刘晓星 教授

(东南大学)

点评人(单位)

尹威 副教授

(东南大学)

时间地点

20181224下午200财神棋牌手机官网B201会议室

报告内容摘要

  

We investigate what determines China‘s housing price dynamics using a DSGE-VAR estimated withpriors allowing for the featured operating of normal and shadow banks in China, with data observedbetween 2001 and 2014. We find that the housing demand shock, which is the essential factor for housingprice bubbles to happen, accounts for near 90% of the housing price fluctuation. We also find that aprosperous housing market could have led to future economic growth, though quantitatively its marginalimpact is small. But this also means that, for policy-makers who wish to stabilise the housing market,the cost on output reduction would be rather limited.

报告人简介

  

欧智荣博士2011年获得英国卡迪夫大学(Cardiff University)经济学博士学位,现为英国卡迪夫大学商学院副教授,擅长于DSGE模型的构建、估计,以及以现代计量方法为基础的DSGE模型检验。目前,欧智荣博士已在国际知名SSCI期刊Economic ModellingOpen Economies ReviewMaritime Economics & Logistics等上发表多篇高水平论文;其教学工作也受到国外同行的好评,曾获得卡迪夫大学2014-2015年度最佳新晋教学奖。他近期的研究旨在通过构建符合中国经济特点及传导机制的DSGE模型,揭示中国房价的决定因素及其对中国经济增长的影响。